9月2020年

IZA DP No. 13757:测量COVID-19时期英格兰的地理差异:使用人口脆弱性综合指标的结果

发表于:BMJ open, 2020,10, e039749。

英国COVID-19感染的增长引发了关于系统脆弱性的问题。在大流行期间,年龄、现有疾病流行率、医疗资源可用性和匮乏等几个因地域而异的因素可能对国家卫生系统产生不利影响。在本文中,我们提供了这些因素的数据,并将它们结合起来创建一个指数,以显示哪些领域的风险敞口更大。这种技术可以帮助决策者减轻类似流行病的影响。我们综合了几个数据来源,这些数据描述了与呼吸道病原体爆发有关的特定风险因素,这些因素可能会使当地地区容易受到大规模传染病爆发的有害后果的影响。我们将这些措施结合起来,生成一个社区级别的脆弱性指数。设置ââ,´â€œ 191英国临床调试组(CCGs)。我们在空间上合并了15项措施,生成了一个社区级别脆弱性指数。这些措施包括高危疾病的流行率;高危人口密度代用指标; availability of staff and quality of healthcare facilities. Results – We find that 80% of CCGs that score in the highest quartile of vulnerability are located in the North of England (24 out of 30). Here, vulnerability stems from a faster rate of population ageing and from the widespread presence of underlying at-risk diseases. These same areas, especially the North-East Coast areas of Lancashire, also appear vulnerable to adverse shocks to healthcare supply due to tighter labour markets for healthcare personnel. Importantly, our Index correlates with a measure of social deprivation, indicating that these communities suffer from long-standing lack of economic opportunities and are characterised by low public and private resource endowments. Conclusions – Evidence-based policy is crucial to mitigate the health impact of pandemics such as COVID-19. While current attention focuses on curbing rates of contagion, we introduce a vulnerability index combining data that can help policy makers identify the most vulnerable communities. We find that this index is positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths and it can thus be used to guide targeted capacity building. These results suggest that a stronger focus on deprived and vulnerable communities is needed to tackle future threats from emerging and re-emerging infectious disease.