2020年9月

IZA DP第13757号:测量COVID-19时期英国的地理差异:使用人口脆弱性综合指标的结果

发表于:BMJ open, 2020,10, e039749。

目的Ã②â, “ COVID-19感染在英国的增长引发了关于系统脆弱性的问题。在大流行期间,年龄、现有疾病流行率、医疗资源的可获得性和匮乏等因地域而异的若干因素可能对国家卫生系统产生不利影响。在本文中,我们展示了这些因素的数据,并将它们结合起来创建一个指数,以显示哪些区域暴露得更严重。这项技术可以帮助决策者减轻类似流行病的影响。设计Ã②â, “我们结合了几个数据来源,这些数据描述了与呼吸道病原体爆发相关的特定风险因素,这些因素可能使当地容易受到大规模传染病爆发的有害后果的影响。我们将这些措施结合起来,生成一个社区级别脆弱性指数。设置Ã①â, “ 191临床调试组(CCGs)在英国。主要结果测度Ã②â, “空间上合并15个测度,得到社区脆弱性指数。这些措施包括高风险疾病的流行率;高危人口密度的代理; availability of staff and quality of healthcare facilities. Results – We find that 80% of CCGs that score in the highest quartile of vulnerability are located in the North of England (24 out of 30). Here, vulnerability stems from a faster rate of population ageing and from the widespread presence of underlying at-risk diseases. These same areas, especially the North-East Coast areas of Lancashire, also appear vulnerable to adverse shocks to healthcare supply due to tighter labour markets for healthcare personnel. Importantly, our Index correlates with a measure of social deprivation, indicating that these communities suffer from long-standing lack of economic opportunities and are characterised by low public and private resource endowments. Conclusions – Evidence-based policy is crucial to mitigate the health impact of pandemics such as COVID-19. While current attention focuses on curbing rates of contagion, we introduce a vulnerability index combining data that can help policy makers identify the most vulnerable communities. We find that this index is positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths and it can thus be used to guide targeted capacity building. These results suggest that a stronger focus on deprived and vulnerable communities is needed to tackle future threats from emerging and re-emerging infectious disease.