2002年2月

IZA DP No. 433:保护还是反作用?劳动力市场制度与移民对欧盟本土居民的影响

发表于:经济杂志,2003,113 (488),F302-F331

我们估计了移民流动对西欧本土就业的影响,然后问移民的就业后果是否因影响劳动力市场灵活性的制度而异。灵活性的降低可能会在短期内保护本国人免受移民竞争的影响,但我们的理论框架表明,灵活性的降低可能会增加移民对均衡就业的负面影响。在没有相互作用的模型中,OLS对20世纪80年代和90年代一组欧洲国家的估计显示,移民的影响很小,而且大多是负面的。为了减少移民流动可能的内生性带来的偏见,我们使用了1991年之后抵达的许多移民是巴尔干战争的难民这一事实。基于来自前南斯拉夫的移民数量变化的IV策略产生了较大但大多不重要的负面估计。然后,我们估计了允许就业对移民的反应和包括企业进入成本在内的制度特征之间相互作用的模型。这些仅限于本土男性样本的结果通常表明,灵活性的降低增加了移民的负面影响。许多估计的相互作用条件是显著的,并意味着对具有限制性制度的国家的就业有显著的负面影响。我们估计了移民流动对西欧本土就业的影响,然后问移民的就业后果是否因影响劳动力市场灵活性的制度而异。灵活性的降低可能会在短期内保护本国人免受移民竞争的影响,但我们的理论框架表明,灵活性的降低可能会增加移民对均衡就业的负面影响。 In models without interactions, OLS estimates for a panel of European countries in the 1980s and 1990s show small, mostly negative immigration effects. To reduce bias from the possible endogeneity of immigration flows, we use the fact that many immigrants arriving after 1991 were refugees from the Balkan wars. An IV strategy based on variation in the number of immigrants from former Yugoslavia generates larger though mostly insignificant negative estimates. We then estimate models allowing interactions between the employment response to immigration and institutional characteristics including business entry costs. These results, limited to the sample of native men, generally suggest that reduced flexibility increases the negative impact of immigration. Many of the estimated interaction terms are significant, and imply a significant negative effect on employment in countries with restrictive institutions.