2020年6月

IZA政策文件第162号:大流行病政策的社会经济学

为了应对Covid-19大流行,世界各国政府提供了大规模的财政和货币刺激措施。虽然这一政策在短期内是受欢迎的,但从中长期来看,它并不能解决根本问题。原因在于,大流行并未导致总需求普遍不足。相反,它产生了“大经济错配”(Great Economic Mismatch),其特征是对需要人与人之间密切身体互动的事物的需求不足,以及在适当情况下与社会距离兼容的事物的供应不足。扩张性的宏观经济政策可以刺激总需求,但当实施社会距离时,只要这种需求通过身体互动活动得到满足,就不会刺激生产和消费。为了克服“大经济错配”,需要“再适应政策”。从中期来看,这些政策将促进资源重新定向到与社会距离相适应的活动中;长期来看,这些政策使经济更能抵御产生“大经济错配”(Great Economic Mismatch)的不可预见的冲击。一旦疫情结束,就需要对公共政策、商业和民间社会的决策进行更深刻的反思。首先,决策者需要在当前对经济效率的关注之外,更加重视经济韧性。 Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people's prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policy makers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance.