2020年6月

IZA第162号政策文件:流行病的社会经济学政策

为应对Covid-19大流行,世界各国政府提供了大规模财政和货币刺激。虽然这一政策在短期内是受欢迎的,但从中长期来看,它并不能解决根本问题。原因是,这一流行病并没有造成总需求的普遍不足。相反,它产生了一种严重的经济错配,其特征是对人与人之间需要密切身体接触的东西的需求不足,以及在适当情况下,与保持社会距离相容的东西的供应不足。扩张性宏观经济政策可以刺激总需求,但当社会距离被强制执行时,只要这种需求通过实体互动活动得到满足,它就不会刺激生产和消费。为了克服经济大错配,需要“再适应政策”。从中期来看,这些政策促进资源转向与保持社会距离相适应的活动;从长远来看,这些政策将使经济在应对产生“经济大错配”(Great Economic Mismatch)的不可预见冲击时更具弹性。疫情结束后,需要对公共政策、企业和民间社会的决策进行更深刻的反思。首先,决策者将需要通过更加强调经济弹性来补充目前对经济效率的关注。 Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people's prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policy makers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance.