在过去的20年里，葡萄牙经历了繁荣、衰退、突然停滞，现在又出现了微弱的复苏。失业率有所下降，但仍处于高位，产出仍远低于潜在水平。虽然竞争力有所提高，但随着经济的复苏，要想控制经常收支，还需要做更多的工作。私人和公共债务都很高，都是繁荣、衰退和突然停止的遗产。生产率增长仍然很低。由于高负债和低增长，经济复苏依然脆弱。我们回顾了历史和工作的主要机制。然后，我们将回顾一系列政策选择，从财政整顿到财政扩张、清理不良贷款、劳动力市场改革、产品市场改革以及退出欧元区。我们认为，在这一点上，宏观经济政策的主要焦点应该是双重的。首先是不良贷款的处理，这将在短期内增加需求，在中期增加供应。 We argue that, to the extent that such treatment requires recapitalization, it makes sense to finance it through an increased fiscal deficit, even in the face of high public debt. The second is product market reforms, and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit.