2021年6月

IZA DP No.14481:Covid-19对中美洲的就业,劳动力市场和性别平等的影响

艾伦韦伯斯特,Sangeeta Khorana.弗朗切斯科牧场

本研究考虑了Covid-19对四个中美洲国家企业的经济影响 - 萨尔瓦多,危地马拉,洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜。在分析时,大流行,也没有经济后果完全运行他们的课程。因此,它不是一个明确的分析,但尽快尝试绘制重要课程是很重要的。该研究的主要重点是对劳动力市场的初步影响。该分析基于在Covid-19爆发之前进行的世界银行企业调查,并由世界银行进行了对大流行影响的后续调查。这些与政府遏制措施和发病率和死亡率的数据相结合。企业数据分析劳动力市场问题的使用有一些局限性,但也有许多优势。这些数据对于分析就业中的性别平等的后果。由于对劳动力的需求是衍生的需求,公司级别数据提供了劳动力市场效应的明确联系。大流行导致许多公司的销售造成显着损失,这造成了损失的流动性,这反过来又导致一些公司减少了就业,工作时间和工资。 Government containment measures necessary to save lives such as temporary workplace closures have added to the burden for both firms and employees. The study starts by using the surveys to identify the important stylised facts. Although some issues are already well documented anecdotally through media reports this provides a more evidence based approach. It also helps identify several issues, such as the impact on gender equality which have received less journalistic attention. The study is further supported by a regression analysis (OLS and SURE) of several key outcomes (changes in sales, employment, the share of females in employment and firm expectations of survival). A limitation of such analysis with any enterprise level is heterogeneity and, in consequence, a risk of sample selection bias. To provide robustness checks we use a matching approach. The results suggest that a significant proportion of surviving firms are vulnerable to permanent closure. The ability of firms to retain labour depends on sales which are affected by both the pandemic itself and the government containment measures. Only a small proportion of firms have received government support and there is evidence that it could help both firm survival and the retention of labour. There is some doubt whether the four countries have the institutional capacity to provide effective support. If such doubts prove well founded then support may need to be externally driven.