2021年6月

IZA DP第14481号:COVID-19对中美洲就业、劳动力市场和性别平等的影响

这项研究考虑了Covid-19对四个中美洲国家(萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜)企业的经济影响。在进行分析时,疫情及其经济后果都没有完全结束。因此,这不是一个明确的分析,但重要的是要努力尽快吸取重要的教训。这项研究的主要焦点是对劳动力市场的初步影响。该分析基于世界银行在Covid-19疫情爆发前开展的企业调查和世界银行也开展的关于大流行影响的后续调查。这些数据与关于政府遏制措施以及发病率和死亡率的数据相结合。使用企业数据分析劳动力市场问题有一些局限性,但也有许多优点。这些数据对于分析就业中性别平等的后果是有用的。由于劳动力需求是一种衍生需求,公司层面的数据与劳动力市场的影响有着明确的联系。这一流行病使许多公司的销售严重损失,造成流动资金的损失,这反过来又使一些公司减少了就业、工作时间和工资。 Government containment measures necessary to save lives such as temporary workplace closures have added to the burden for both firms and employees. The study starts by using the surveys to identify the important stylised facts. Although some issues are already well documented anecdotally through media reports this provides a more evidence based approach. It also helps identify several issues, such as the impact on gender equality which have received less journalistic attention. The study is further supported by a regression analysis (OLS and SURE) of several key outcomes (changes in sales, employment, the share of females in employment and firm expectations of survival). A limitation of such analysis with any enterprise level is heterogeneity and, in consequence, a risk of sample selection bias. To provide robustness checks we use a matching approach. The results suggest that a significant proportion of surviving firms are vulnerable to permanent closure. The ability of firms to retain labour depends on sales which are affected by both the pandemic itself and the government containment measures. Only a small proportion of firms have received government support and there is evidence that it could help both firm survival and the retention of labour. There is some doubt whether the four countries have the institutional capacity to provide effective support. If such doubts prove well founded then support may need to be externally driven.