2021年6月

IZA DP No.14464:工作损失和脱碳的福利成本 - 来自德国煤淘汰的证据

脱碳经济体是一个巨大的任务。公众辩论往往侧重于化石行业的工人的失业。为什么失业昂贵?谁受到影响最大的?可以延迟转换降低福利成本吗?其他政策工具可能有哪些?我们展示了一个简单的求职框架,计算失业的救生福利成本。我们将模型应用于原型化石行业 - 煤炭矿业。基于德国煤炭就业传记的宇宙,我们估计了模型和分解福利成本。我们发现失业是一个小因素:煤炭驱动福利成本的高工资和工作保障。 We distinguish welfare costs by age, education and business cycle. High-educated workers aged 31-49 face highest losses. Based on a detailed demographic projection, we estimate that advancing coal exit from 2038 to 2030 increases unmitigated welfare costs by one third. Labor market policy promoting career switches rather than retirement can alleviate these welfare costs: A wage insurance scheme is estimated to reduce welfare losses by 80-99% at reasonable costs.