2021年3月

IZA DP No. 14164:欧盟的移民和投票模式:来自五个案例研究和跨国分析的证据

伊桑•Grumstrup托德·a·索伦森, Jan Misiuna, Marta Pachocka

2015年欧洲难民危机爆发后,一些国家对寻求庇护者完全关闭了边境。这被认为助长了反移民情绪,在欧洲,这种情绪随着对极右翼政党的支持而增长,此前极右翼政党的支持率一直在下降。这引发了对移民和极右翼投票关系的一系列研究,发现了复杂而微妙的证据,表明在某些情况下,移民增加了极右翼的支持,而在另一些情况下,则减少了对移民的支持。Mendez和Cutillas的研究(2014);Mayda, Peri, and Steingress (2016);Vertier和Viskanic (2018);Georgiadou, Lamprini, and Costas(2018)发现移民的存在减少了右翼政党的选票,而Otto和Steinhardt(2014)的其他发现;dusmann, Vasiljeva, and Damm (2016);Halla, Wagner, and Zweimuller (2017);布鲁纳和库恩(2018); and Edo et. al. (2019) found that immigration increased votes for right parties. To provide more evidence to this unsettled debate in the empirical literature, we use data from over 400 European parties to systematically select cases of individual countries. We augment this with a cross-country quantitative study. Our analysis finds little evidence that immigrant populations are related to changes in voting for the right. Our finding gives evidence that factors other than immigration are the true cause of rises in right voting.

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