2020年9月

IZA DP第13757号:衡量COVID-19期间英格兰的地理差异:使用人口脆弱性综合指标的结果

发表于:英国医学杂志,2020,10,e039749。

â,¬英国COVID-19感染的增长引发了对系统脆弱性的质疑。在大流行期间,年龄、现有疾病流行、医疗资源可得性和匮乏等因地域而异的几个因素可能对国家卫生系统产生不利影响。在本文中,我们提供了这些因素的数据,并将它们结合起来创建一个指数,以显示哪些地区更容易受到影响。这种技术可以帮助决策者缓和类似流行病的影响。设计â,´我们结合了几种数据来源,这些数据描述了与呼吸道病原体爆发有关的具体风险因素,这些因素可能使当地地区容易受到传染病大规模爆发的有害后果的影响。我们将这些措施结合起来,生成一个社区层面的脆弱性指数。设置â,¾¾191临床调试组(ccg)在英国。主要结果衡量指标â我们在空间上合并了15项衡量指标,生成了一个社区脆弱性指数。这些措施涵盖高危疾病的流行率;高危人口密度的代用指标; availability of staff and quality of healthcare facilities. Results – We find that 80% of CCGs that score in the highest quartile of vulnerability are located in the North of England (24 out of 30). Here, vulnerability stems from a faster rate of population ageing and from the widespread presence of underlying at-risk diseases. These same areas, especially the North-East Coast areas of Lancashire, also appear vulnerable to adverse shocks to healthcare supply due to tighter labour markets for healthcare personnel. Importantly, our Index correlates with a measure of social deprivation, indicating that these communities suffer from long-standing lack of economic opportunities and are characterised by low public and private resource endowments. Conclusions – Evidence-based policy is crucial to mitigate the health impact of pandemics such as COVID-19. While current attention focuses on curbing rates of contagion, we introduce a vulnerability index combining data that can help policy makers identify the most vulnerable communities. We find that this index is positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths and it can thus be used to guide targeted capacity building. These results suggest that a stronger focus on deprived and vulnerable communities is needed to tackle future threats from emerging and re-emerging infectious disease.